June 06, 2009 4 Comments

I realize today is the day I normally post pandemic prep information. I will do that tomorrow, but I felt the information released by the Center for Disease Control today needed to be addressed. We now have reason to believe there are actually one million people in the U.S. who have been infected with the H1N1 virus. I have been discussing my concern that the numbers were actually much higher than reported because testing supplies had run out. Also, in some areas, doctors were no longer testing, feeling the H1N1 was mild, and opting to just treat the patient as though they had the disease or, worse yet, sending them home telling them to just get rest and drink a lot.

What does this really mean? It means we should get ready because this is not dying off and will return. It also means so far, we do not have a method in place for really tracking this illness.

The news also goes on to report a survey of 26 health care workers, half became infected while at work. This confirms not only that the H1N1 is easily spread among these critical first responders but also that we may not have those responders available in the numbers needed, should the H1N1 become a serious threat during the fall flu season.

Another report indicates that two to three doses of the vaccine will be necessary. The numbers become mind boggling. The United States has a population of 304,059,724, Canada 33, 694,000, Australia 21, 761, 000, Great Britain 61,613,000 and New Zealand 4,313,386. These are just the major English speaking countries, which is where most of your reside, for a total of: 425,341,110. The World Health Organization estimates when production is at it’s peek the monthly production of vaccines in the world will be 416,000,000 doses. That is less than just the English speaking nations will need. Those same nations comprise only 16% of the world population. You can begin to see just how difficult it will be for us to receive one dose of the vaccine let alone two.

An estimated 1 million Americans have been infected with the H1N1 swine flu, which continues to produce mild illness and a fairly quick recovery in patients, U.S. health officials said Thursday.

The estimate is based on mathematical modeling, Lyn Finelli, a flu surveillance official with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a vaccine advisory meeting in Atlanta, the Associated Press reported.

Nearly 28,000 cases — about half the cases in the world — have been reported to the CDC, including 3,065 hospitalizations and 127 deaths, the news service said. By comparison, an estimated 15 million to 60 million Americans are infected with the seasonal flu each year, leading to roughly 36,000 deaths.

Meanwhile, the head of the World Health Organization said Thursday that the previously undiscovered virus, which first surfaced in mid-April in Mexico, has yet to show any signs of mutating.

Even though H1N1 swine flu infections continue to be mild, for the most part, health-care workers need to do more to protect themselves from infection by the virus. A small sample of 26 health-care workers found that half became infected while at work, according to a report in the June 19 issue of the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/hscout/2009/06/25/hscout628467.html

The vaccine being developed to combat a pandemic of swine flu will require multiple shots to provide immunity from the new virus, and the added immunizations may overwhelm U.S. state agencies, health officials said.

Two injections will be required three weeks apart for swine flu, also known as H1N1, and a third will be needed for seasonal flu, health officials said at a meeting today at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in Atlanta. Children younger than 9 years will need four shots, the CDC said.

Dr. William Shaffner, an influenza expert at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee, in an interview at the flu conference. “One shot probably gives you very little immunity, 10 to 20 percent at most.”

The U.S. government took the unusual step of purchasing all of the swine flu vaccine, and the shots will probably be administered through vaccine clinics set up by state health organizations, the CDC said. The agency estimates that at least 50 million vaccine doses will be available in the U.S. by October 15, and enough vaccine to immunize everyone in the country will be available later in the season.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=axzjhgp27HJ8

As drug makers continue to work on developing a viable H1N1 vaccine, the WHO has held off on “whether people should get vaccinated against H1N1, which has spread to all regions of the world,” Reuters writes. “WHO has estimated vaccine makers could produce up to 4.9 billion pandemic flu shots a year in a best-case scenario, leaving some of the world’s 6.5 billion population unprotected, particularly if more than one dose was needed” (Reuters, 6/17).

http://globalhealth.kff.org/Daily-Reports/2009/June/18/GH-061809-Swine-Flu-Update.aspx

Protein Sciences Corp. said it’s able to produce 100,000 doses of the vaccine each week.

http://www.wfsb.com/health/19758121/detail.html

Vaccine maker Sanofi-Aventis announced Thursday it has started “large-scale production” of an H1N1 vaccine at its facilities located in the U.S. and France, Reuters reports.  “Sanofi said dosage requirements for the vaccine will be based on clinical trials expected to take place during the summer in the northern hemisphere,” the news agency writes (Steenhuysen, Reuters, 6/25). “The company has the capacity to make 270 million doses of vaccine per year at its three plants,” (Maugh, Los Angeles Times, 6/25).

http://globalhealth.kff.org/Daily-Reports/2009/June/26/GH-062609-Swine-Flu-Update.aspx

There was a comments section after one of the article above the those commenting said this was all a bunch of scare tactics. Why are so many of us so willing to stick our heads in the sand and do nothing? This may all turn out to be nothing, or it may still mutate and become more deadly, or it may not mutate but for those who have the seasonal flu and also contract the H1N1 it may be deadly. We just don’t know so why take the chance when unlike for grandparents of 1918 we have a warning of what may come our way.

Prep Not Panic…that’s our motto!

Pandemic

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