Pandemic Prep…Where is the Vaccine?
A few weeks ago there was lots of talk on the Internet about the government forcing people to be vaccinated. At the time I told you not to worry about that as there would not be enough vaccine to make that demand possible. I also pointed out that we are only about 12% of the world population and only about 450 million doses could be manufactured each month. That is about the population of the United States or enough for 12% of the world’s population. Can you see that there is no way there will be enough vaccine to require everyone to have the shot or spray administered? Not now, not ever.
There has not been too much talk about the H1N1 flu as some on the Internet keep saying. I really believe there has not been enough of the good information out there. Bottom line, it is here, it is dangerous, and we are responsible to care for our family, no one else. I wrote Prep Not Panic to help get out information that would enable everyone to care for those in their home when it became time to make tough decisions. That time is now.
As we discussed yesterday the flu is being spread in the schools. Today two schools in the Sacramento area closed their doors for at least a week. Other schools have done the same. One mom made a comment on yesterday’s post that teachers in her school were out in huge numbers with the flu. If your school does not close it will be up to you to make that call. The truth is, there will not be enough vaccine available, for those who want it, to prevent this from spreading. Only isolation from those who are ill will slow it down now.
Why are there vaccine shortages?
Nicole Lurie, the assistant secretary for preparedness and response at HHS explained the delays to ScienceInsider in more detail, noting that the government has been weathering something of a perfect storm of unforeseen problems. HHS (Health and Human Services) contracted with five companies to make vaccines. Only one, MedImmune, makes a live but weakened version of the virus, which is a different manufacturing process than the killed version. MedImmune has supplied product close to the predicted schedule, but it only is contracted for 12.8 million doses of the 251 million ordered. The other four companies—CSL Biotherapies of Melbourne, Australia; Sanofi Pasteur of Lyon, France; GlaxoSmithKline of London; and Novartis of Basel, Switzerland—have had different issues.
For proprietary reasons, Lurie would not name the delay issues at each manufacturer, but said “one company was just really overoptimistic” in its delivery predictions to HHS. Initially, all of the makers of inactivated vaccine had trouble with the “potency assay” used to ensure that 15 micrograms of influenza antigens are present in each dose. Once that was corrected, said Lurie, this company lost 20% to 35% of its antigen during the “recalibration.” Unfortunately, said Lurie, the company did not notify HHS of the problem. “They thought they were going to compensate by getting their yield up but they never let us know,” she said. “When we learned of problem, it was over and there was nothing we could do, which is too bad because we could have helped.”
After Columbus Day on 12 October, HHS learned about delays at two of the other companies. One had a new production line to fill doses of vaccine into individual syringes. “Getting up the new production lines with prefilled syringes was really slow,” Lurie said. The third company had “major production problems” that Lurie said she could not describe in detail for proprietary reasons. Basically they had difficulty making “acceptable” vaccine that did not contain an immune booster called an adjuvant, which is used in several countries but not the United States.
The final company wanted to supply its own country with vaccine before shipping product to the United States, which Lurie said would begin next week. She did not identify the company, but Australia’s CSL earlier said it would supply its country before exporting the product. http://blogs.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2009/10/pandemic-vaccin-2.html
In addition all companies have been asked to designate a number of doses of the vaccine to countries that could not afford to purchase it.
This fall and winter promise to be very different than any we have experienced in a very long time. We may be forced to change our plans for the holidays if it becomes impossible to fly safely due to the flu. Pilots and other airline employees will become ill. To what extend we do not know.
Right now children are beiong banned from visiting patients in hospitals. Children will not be allowed to visit patients at Iowa City’s three hospitals until risk of the H1N1 flu pandemic has passed.
Other hospital restrictions also went into effect today in Johnson County.
Visitors are limited to two adults — 18 or older — per patient at any one time. Special circumstances may be considered at the end of life or for critically ill patients.
Anyone with signs of influenza, including a fever greater than 100, respiratory symptoms, such as cough, sore throat, runny nose, or shortness of breath, as well as fatigue, chills, muscle pain, headache and vomiting or diarrhea, will not be permitted to visit any patient area. http://www.kcrg.com/news/local/65808742.html
Already 20% of all children have been infected with the H1N1. The latest government survey has found that 1 in 5 U.S. children had a flu-like illness earlier this month, and most of those cases likely were swine flu.
A federal health official announced the findings Wednesday, at a medical meeting in Atlanta. The information comes from a household survey of more than 10,000 adults done in the first 11 days of October. http://www.kens5.com/latestnews/stories/KENS20091023-Swine-flu-kids.245b9c9c2.html
You will probably be involved in many more discussions of the flu in the next few weeks. Please encourage “Prep Not Panic” among your friends and family. Remember you can always ask questions here and I will do my best to answer them with the help of my medical advisers and research I do each day. Our goal at Totally Ready is to create a culture of self reliance in our homes. That means staying informed, asking questions of credible sources, and preparing to handle emergencies as they happen. Self reliance brings calm, not panic. Now is the time to use what we have learned to make those informed decisions and act upon them.
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Blog Talk Radio Show with Kathy Hamilton..listen to our conversation at:
Blog Talk Radio Shows with James Talmage Stevens: All are about the H1N1
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/James-Talmage-Steven/2009/10/17/Family-Preparedness-Guide
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/James-Talmage-Steven/2009/06/20/Family-Preparedness-Guide
http://www.blogtalkradio.com/James-Talmage-Steven/2009/05/23/Family-Preparedness-Guide
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It is interesting that the local media has says nothing about the school closures in the Sacramento area. I live here and I closely watching all the H1N1 updates I can find.
A relative of my husband’s is ill with the Swine Flu. She is 5 and her parents already had tickets to see an Imagination Movers show (geared for the preschool set) and they are unwilling to keep their daughter home despite her illness. Sadly, too many people are simply too selfish to do the right thing and just stay home. Those same people will discuss how scary the epidemic is and how sad it is when children and others are dying from it. Why can’t people realize that you are leading to the potential deaths of others if you do NOT stay home until the danger has passed?
Do you know what the names of the two schools in Sacramento are? I’m not far from there and haven’t seen anything about it.
I was shocked yesterday to talk to a 60 yr old teacher who was told she had all symptoms of the H1N1 flu and she still went to school with a fever/cough and fatigue to teach 1st and 2nd graders in Virgina, they have also closed one school in DC due to the high number of cases- did not make the news either!