Pandemic to Stress Health Care System…Crime Rates Rise
Here is what the government is saying today:
The President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology Monday estimated that the H1N1 influenza has the capacity to infect half of the U.S. population, hospitalize more than 1.8 million people and cause 90,000 deaths.
These numbers appear in an 86-page report, assessing government’s response to the first pandemic influenza in the last 41 years, submitted to the White House.
According to Harold Varmus of New York’s Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, who co-chairs the 21-member council, “This is going to be fairly serious,” said. “It’s going to stress every aspect of our health system.”
Where, exactly, do numbers like these come from? The new report was put together by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. It turns out the predictions are based on just a couple key facts:
- The virus seems to be transmitted from person to person at the same rate as in previous flu pandemics — a rate that’s much higher than that of the regular seasonal flu. Rapid transmission suggests that the total number of infections could be very high.
- The death rate for people who catch H1N1 seems about the same as that for seasonal flu. The White House advisors estimate that, so far, between 1 in 1,000 and 3 in 1,000 people who have needed medical help then end up dying. Assuming that this normal death rate continues during flu season, the total number of deaths is projected to be much higher than normal because of the higher number of infections.
And that’s basically it. The Council’s report notes prominently and often that, even though the up-to-50%-infected scenario is plausible, it is by no means certain. That’s because both of the basic facts above — the infection rate and the case fatality rate — are still a little fuzzy. They’re hard to measure in the first place, and it’s not totally clear whether they’ll change as the pandemic progresses.
There’s one other very good reason that this year’s flu pandemic has experts unnerved. Seasonal flu typically kills only the elderly, with 90% of victims 65 and older, according to the new White House report. (That’s one of the reasons we don’t consider seasonal flu a very serious disease, even though it kills thousands of Americans very year; the public just doesn’t get too upset over a 92-year-old passing quietly in the night.) But the pandemic flu has hit young people and working-age adults unusually hard, just as the deadly 1918 flu did. So far 83% of U.S. deaths and 71% of hospitalizations have occurred among people aged 5 to 64. That means that every death is responsible for more years of life lost.
Again, this is just another signal that we must prepare to care for ourselves and AVOID contracting the flu whenever possible. If that means self quarantine…Do It!
A sign of the times: Last week a friend returned to her car after shopping in our local mall. The lock on her SUV had been drilled out and EVERYTHING in the car cleared out, even the car’s seats! Everything! This happened in a busy mall in the middle of the day. Her neighbor had someone smash the window in her car and grab what they could from inside the car. When the neighbor returned home her home had been burglarized. The same people who smashed her car window or just a coincidence? Who knows. Another friend had a cousin who heard the door bell ring but as she was house sitting she ignored it and went into the back yard to water plants. When she returned to the house there was an intruder in the kitchen. They stood face to face for a second and he turned to leave. She ducked behind the kitchen island as he turned and fired his gun. She had her cell phone and called 911 and then her father. Her dad arrived before the police. Another sign of a bad economy.With police department budgets being cut and officers being fired thieves are becoming more brazen.
According to studies and our knowledge of history we can expect this type of behavior to increase as the economy continues to struggle. As people are seen as vulnerable robberies also increase. With the threat of increased H1N1 cases more families will be spending time away from home seeking medical help, leaving homes empty and making easy targets. Please be aware of your surroundings when traveling and keep your doors locked even when you are home.
Review the article in your August Newsletter Prepare Now To Protect Your Home From Invaders, for tips.
http://wellness.blogs.time.com/2009/08/25/h1n1-death-projections-doing-the-math/
http://www.themedguru.com/20090826/newsfeature/half-u-s-may-get-infected-h1n1-experts-86127393.html
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I am really trying to find comfort in being prepared, but I will admit that I am a worrier and the idea that people I love could die from this pandemic has me a bit panicked! How are you all staying so calm?
I have done enough reading about pandemics to realize that I and some of my loved ones could die. The one thing that calms me is my knowledge and trust in the resurrection provided by the Savior of mankind. Also, my mother taught me from my toddler years that death was a part of life–she exposed all of her children to death at every opportunity so that we would not be so surprised when we had to face it with close family members. She did this by taking us to the viewings of our many great aunts and uncles on both sides of our families–and there were many.
I too find comfort in the preparations that I have been able to make but also realize that I can still be surprised by something basic that I may have missed. I realize that all preparations can be lost to theft or natural disaster, regardless of our preparations. In the end we truly are dependent on that God who gave us life.
I checked with our school today to see what the plan is for H1N1 and was not impressed. They have no plans to close down the school if a massive outbreak occurs. I told them I will pull my kids out and homeschool for a lengthy amount of time if I need to do it.
No kidding? Wow, I had no idea.
Regarding safety: We were working out of state and had our truck broken into during the day in a busy parking lot. We were only in the store 10 minutes. The theif stole our GPS then used it to find where we were staying. The second time he arrived security asked him to leave not knowing we had been robbed earlier in the day. I do not program our “home” or the home of friends or relatives with their names, we use code names like “Deputy Jones Home” Also be very cautious who you allow into your home. Our neighbor was robbed by a carpet cleaning team. Buy a small lock box and keep your valuables, including prescription medications in it. For traveling I keep my cash in one of those little plastic Handi Wipes packages. Remove the wipes and allow to dry. Then carefully coax the bills in the opening – perfect size and feel. I no longer carry a purse but have a small wallet for cash, cards and id I carry in my front pocket and I keep my cell phone in my pocket at all times. Thieves are becoming more bold as times are becoming more difficult.
http://www.localnews8.com/Global/story.asp?S=11041681
Just thought everyone would like to know.
Have you seen what is going on in Massachusetts. This bill has passed the MA senate and is going to the house.
A note: I just pulled up the first site I googled that looked to have a comprehensive account of the bill on the news this week and have no connection or endorsement to the site. I spent no time on the site so have no idea how the site stands otherwise so take that with a grain of salt (or support) and/or google something like “Massachusetts pandemic bill.”
VERY scary stuff but read for yourself.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=108604